calculating voting weights

A quick thought about calculating voting weights in the Council -- we shall see within 48 hours or so whether it is irrelevant or not.

Let's leave aside the hypothetical Polish population of 66 million -- after all, most other EU states lost citizens in the war, including Germany, although as Basil Fawlty would point out, they did start the war. (Plus we could ask how many Polish citizens were actually killed by the Russians rather than the Germans, and speculate what the German population would be if the war had never begun, meaning that much of northern and western Poland would still be German territory. But let's not go there).

I think a fair basis for calculating voting weights would be a majority of small Member States and a majority of larger (ie the big six) Member States in favour. This would in effect make it harder to pass legislation than under the Constitutional Treaty (since under the CT rules three of the big six cannot, by themselves, block a measure, and there are scenarios under which a majority of smaller MS can be outvoted if five or six of the biggest support a measure). I am not sure whether it would be easier to pass legislation than under the Nice Treaty -- I can't do the maths on that to be certain. (The system certainly would make it possible for any three of the biggest six to block legislation -- which is impossible under the Nice or Constitutional Treaty rules. So it would benefit all six of them, including the UK and Germany).

This would treat Poland equally to the other big Member States and would compensate the smaller Member States too. Raising the bar for passing legislation would have the useful impact of taking away the argument that the 'Reform Treaty' (to use the Presidency's title) would make it harder for Member States to block measures they disagree with. The EU already seems to have sufficient ability to pass legislation under its current rules for QMV -- if my alternative would make it a little harder to pass legislation, I doubt that the EU would really grind to a halt.

This system could either be introduced as the sole criterion for voting, or added to one or both of the criteria currently set out in the CT. (The criteria that at least four MS are necessary to block a measure would have to be dropped, though). If we retain the 65% population requirement, this would still satisfy German interests in having its population recognised.

Or the system could be introduced indirectly -- if we drop the requirement that four MS are necessary to block a measure, and raise the requirement for 55% of MS to block a measure to 65% (ie the same as the population criterion). Again this would compensate both big and small MS simultaneously.

By no means should anyone accept the Czech idea that we should need FIVE Member States to block a measure -- this would make it significantly easier to pass legislation, perhaps even against the objection of MS with a majority of the population, plus it seems to me it would weaken the ability of the Poles, as one of the biggest six, to form part of a blocking minority. They would be daft to go along with this, it seems to me.